Mr. Georgi Panterov has once again finished among the finalists of the Forex Masters competition, this time earning 30% higher profitability than the previous month. You can find more information about him in his Forex Masters profile.

  Here are his comments regarding the June contest:

  For a second month in a row you have managed to finish in second place in the Forex Masters competition. Is this a coincidence?

  - Interesting question. It’s hardly a coincidence, although luck does play a large role, since I was able to “catch” quite a strong trend against the Yen, which lasted for the past 2 months, as I continued to bet against the Japanese currency. At present I am less of an optimist about the future of the carry trade, although I think that we will continue seeing a slight weakening of the Yen.

  This month you were beaten by your mother. How do you feel, when you consider the fact, that she has less Forex trading experience then you?

  - There is no jealousy; since a lot of the positions were opened after mutual consultations.

  Do you discuss the direction of the market and possible strategies, or are you rivals in this case?

  - Yes, of course we discuss most of the transactions together, but there is also a dose of competitiveness.

  You trade mainly with currency pairs containing the Japanese Yen, but this month you haven’t taken advantage of rollover even once. What do you think of carry trade deals and do you practice them often?

  - My investment strategy is based entirely on carry trade deals. This is why most of the pairs I trade contain the Yen. In the past I would also bet against the Swiss Franc, but the economic growth of Europe is larger than that of Japan, and respectively the gains there are smaller then the deals in the direction of the interest differential. Apart from that, the carry trade was a successful investment against the Swiss Franc too.

  Did you have any assumptions around the fall of the Yen against the Dollar (the 4 year low of 13.06)? What about the fall of the Australian dollar against the Yen from the end of June? If yes, what were they based on?

  - Concerning the Australian dollar – yes, I did. I started liking this currency at the end of May, and began buying it against the Yen at every “bottom”, as I considered that there was an upward trend there. I wrote a few articles about the question of the carry trade and the Australian dollar in Investor.bg. I think that the situation around the AUD is still “bullish”, and for now I plan to continue buying it. My prognosis was based on a couple of things – high interest rates, increasing metal prices, strong economy, and most importantly - a stable international situation, which predisposes for the carry trade.
Concerning carry trade deals with the Dollar, I am no longer such an optimist, since it is still not clear what the effects will be from the country’s mortgage and construction sector crisis on other parts of the economy. If someone wants to profit from carry trading, there are better currencies then the Dollar which you can choose at the moment.

  How will you comment the pegging of the interest rates of the central banks – the BOJ from the middle of the month, the RBA from June 20th and the FED from the end of June? What do you expect to happen in the near future?

- I don’t expect an increase in Japan’s interest rates in July, but it’s possible to witness an increase of a quarter of a point by the end of the year. This will mark a temporary correction of the Yen, after which, the carry trade will prove profitable again and I will continue selling Yen. The low interest rates in Japan are due to the long term deflation and with a lack of strong economical data they won’t dare to raise the rates significantly soon.
Concerning the FED – I don’t think that there will be any substantial change in interest rates by the end of the year – they won’t raise them, because of problems in the construction sector, and they won’t lower them, since inflation is still an issue.