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Mid-Term Forex Outlook
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
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May 3, 2009
- 1.3264
The currency pair is still in the broad consolidation
above 1.2328 (Oct. 27, 2008). Technical indicators are neutral and
trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected
at 1.3108 and 1.3521.
As expected, the pair is still in the prolonged consolidation above
1.2328 and with recent reversal at 1.2887 we believe, that the final
phase is on the run. Obviously there is a potential for one more
upswing to 1.3521, but the time is running out and a clear break below
1.2457 will plainly state, that the ranging mode is over and downtrend
towards 1.15+ is underway. Important on the downside are 1.2887, 1.2547
and 1.2328. 1.3740 and 1.4719 are significant resistance levels, but
unfortunately they don't have crucial meaning at all.
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Resistance
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Support
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1.3396
1.3740
1.4719
1.50+
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1.2887
1.2457
1.2328
1.15+
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USD/JPY
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May 3, 2009 - 99.28
A
significant rebound is on the run from the short-term minimum at
87.12, targeting 102.16 and probably 103.55. Technical indicators are
rising and convergent on daily basis, and trading is situated above
the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 98.33.
With the recent top at 101.44 the pair
dipped to 95.64, which unfortunately was not enough to neutralize the
overall positive bias, as a break below 93.58 is still needed to
confirm, that the uptrend from 87.12 is over. In current
circumstances, the bias is still to be considered positive for 102.44,
but we prefer the idea, that a top is already in place and a downtrend
is on the run for 93.58 and 87.12. Nevertheless, while there is no
clear break below 93.58, there will be a risk of violating current high
at 101.44.
On the larger frames, the downtrend from 124.14 is intact, with a risk limit at 110.66 and reliable resistance at 103.55.
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Resistance
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Support
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99.96
101.44
103.55
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97.65
95.64
93.58
87.12
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GBP/USD
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May 3, 2009 -
1.4907
GBP/USD is in a
consolidation phase above the recent low at 1.3506. Technical
indicators are in a reversal process, and trading takes place between the
50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4465 and 1.5796.
The pair is still in the prolonged consolidation above 1.3506 and with
the the recent minor bottom at 1.3657, probably the third part of the
mentioned corrective phase is underway. Although the sell-off from
2.0153 was really huge, 1.3506 can not be yet considered as a
significant bottom and we believe, that new minimums lie ahead. Current
consolidation is aiming at 1.5324 and 1.5727 and somewhere in this area
a reversal should be expected for the next leg downwards, below 1.35+.
During May the corrective mode will be on stage again and only a
clear break below 1.3657 will confirm, that the broad consolidation
pattern above 1.3506 is already complete. Meanwhile, the bias remains
positive for 1.5301 and 1.5727.
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Resistance
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Support
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1.5065
1.5301
1.5727
1.70+
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1.4398
1.3657
1.30+
1.25+
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European Union Regulated Broker © 1999-2009 DELTASTOCK AD - Sofia 1301, 6 Stefan Stambolov Blvd., phone +359 2 811 50 50/811 50 55; office@deltastock.com;
Risk Disclosure
