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Mid-term Forex Outlook
Mid-Term Forex Outlook
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
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November 30, 2008
- 1.2697
The currency pair is in an uptrend from the 1.2328 bottom
(October 10, 2008), that was practically the final of the slide from
1.4865. Technical indicators are neutral
on daily basis and trading is situated below
the 50-
and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.3227 and 1.4845.
The consolidation structure above 1.2328 has resulted in a renewal of
the general downtrend, but unfortunately it did not succeed in setting
a new low below 1.2328. This prevents us from considering 1.3281 or
1.3116 as crucial levels on the upside and actually the pair is still
to be regarded as being in the prolonged corrective phase above 1.2328.
An eventual break below 1.2421 will be the trigger for a sharp sell-off
towards 1.1864 and 1.1640.
Nevertheless, we are tempted to think, that the whole downtrend from
1.6039 has already been completed at 1.2421 and currently an uptrend is
on the run, targeting 1.3745 and 1.4183. Confirmation will be received
after a clear break above 1.2957 and 1.3281.
During December we will expect the pair to break through 1.2957 and
1.3281, aiming at 1.3745 and probably 1.3882. Crucial for our outlook
is 1.2421, as if we see a break below that level it would be a clear
sign, that the consolidation above 1.2328 is already over and the
general downtrend has been renewed for 1.1864, en route to 1.1640.
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Resistance
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Support
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1.2957
1.3281
1.3745
1.4183
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1.2421
1.2328
1.1863
1.1640
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USD/JPY
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November
30, 2008 - 95.52
A
clear downtrend is on the run from the mid-term top at 124.24 and it
broke below the previous low at 95.75,
reaching minimum at 90.95.
Technical indicators are neutral on daily basis
and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-period SMA, currently
projected at 99.55 and 103.52.
The currency pair
came up to
our expectations, as it confirmed, that a larger corrective phase is on
the run since the recent low at 90.95 and it will aim at 102.42 and
103.55 before completion. We hold on to our view, that recent swings
are simply a part of the mentioned consolidation and currently the pair
has entered the third, upward phase, that should target 103.55.
DJIAhas
already
reached a significant bottom at 7 392 (possible end of the downtrend
from 13 170) and we feel, the index has entered a large consolidation
phase, targeting 10 410
in the weeks to come.
During next month we will expect a break beyond 97.48 to clear the road
for a test of the 100.53 high and if successful, a fast rise towards
103.55 resistance zone should take place at the end of the period.
Crucial for our view is 90.95, as if the pair breaks below that level,
that will be a clear sign, that the overall downtrend is renewed for 78.95.
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Resistance
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Support
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96.01
97.48
100.53
102.42 |
94.46
93.48
90.95
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GBP/USD
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November
30, 2008 -
1.5404
GBP/USD
is in a
minor uptrend from 1.4557, after reaching a significant bottom,
probably a final of the prolonged slide since 2.0153 short-term top.
Technical indicators are slowly reversing on daily basis and trading is
situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6442
and 1.8717.
As
expected, the
consolidation above the previous low at 1.5270 has resulted in a
renewal of the overall downtrend and the pair did almost reach our
idealized target at 1.4503 with the minimum at 1.4557. The rise from
1.4557 looks a bit of a corrective one, but we favor the view, that a
bottom has already been reached and currently the bias is positive, for
1.6301 and 1.7065.
In December we will expect the current uptrend from 1.4551 to be
retained and to continue towards 1.6301 and even 1.6789. Crucial is
1.4711, as if the pair falls below that level, the whole structure
above 1.4557 will be transformed into a corrective one and the general
downtrend will be renewed towards 1.4103 and 1.3640.
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Resistance
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Support
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1.5531
1.5889
1.6682
1.7065
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1.5263
1.5130
1.4711
1.3640
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Risk Disclaimer:
These analyses are for information purposes only. They do not post a buy or sell recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources.
The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Deltastock's Analyst Deptartment also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe may impact the price moves of the observed instruments.
Deltastock AD assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Deltastock AD shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result.
Any information is subject to change without prior notice.
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