Deltastock Home


 Wednesday, 07.01.2009    Local Time:
Free Demo Account  Open A Live Account  Web Trading Login

  GMT: Български  English  Русский  Romana
Home Services Trading Platforms Resources Live Accounts Partnership
Economic Calendar     News     Analysis     Quotes     Currency Converter     Support/Resistance     Instruments     CFD Statistics     Education     Links     



Home |
Resources |
Mid-term Forex Outlook >

Mid-term Forex Outlook


Mid-Term Forex Outlook EUR/USD  USD/JPY  GBP/USD 



EUR/USD





November 30, 2008
-
1.2697

The currency pair is in an uptrend from the 1.2328 bottom (October 10, 2008), that was practically the final of the slide from 1.4865. Technical indicators are neutral on daily basis  and  trading is situated below the  50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.3227 and 1.4845.

The consolidation structure above 1.2328 has resulted in a renewal of the general downtrend, but unfortunately it did not succeed in setting a new low below 1.2328. This prevents us from considering 1.3281 or 1.3116 as crucial levels on the upside and actually the pair is still to be regarded as being in the prolonged corrective phase above 1.2328. An eventual break below 1.2421 will be the trigger for a sharp sell-off towards 1.1864 and 1.1640.
Nevertheless, we are tempted to think, that the whole downtrend from 1.6039 has already been completed at 1.2421 and currently an uptrend is on the run, targeting 1.3745 and 1.4183. Confirmation will be received after a clear break above 1.2957 and 1.3281.

During December we will expect the pair to break through 1.2957 and 1.3281, aiming at 1.3745 and probably 1.3882. Crucial for our outlook is 1.2421, as if we see a break below that level it would be a clear sign, that the consolidation above 1.2328 is already over and the general downtrend has been renewed for 1.1864, en route to 1.1640.

Resistance
Support
1.2957
1.3281
1.3745
1.4183


1.2421
1.2328
1.1863
1.1640




USD/JPY




November 30, 2008 - 95.52

A clear downtrend is on the run from the mid-term top at 124.24 and it broke below the previous low at 95.75, reaching minimum at 90.95. Technical indicators are neutral on daily basis and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-period SMA, currently projected at 99.55 and 103.52.


The currency pair  came up to our expectations, as it confirmed, that a larger corrective phase is on the run since the recent low at 90.95 and it will aim at 102.42 and 103.55 before completion. We hold on to our view, that recent swings are simply a part of the mentioned consolidation and currently the pair has entered the third, upward phase, that should target 103.55.
DJIAhas already reached a significant bottom at 7 392 (possible end of the downtrend from 13 170) and we feel, the index has entered a large consolidation phase, targeting 10 410 in the weeks to come.

During next month we will expect a break beyond 97.48 to clear the road for a test of the 100.53 high and if successful, a fast rise towards 103.55 resistance zone should take place at the end of the period. Crucial for our view is 90.95, as if the pair breaks below that level, that will be a clear sign, that the overall downtrend is renewed for 78.95

Resistance
Support
96.01
97.48
100.53
102.42

94.46
93.48
90.95



GBP/USD





November 30, 2008 -  1.5404


GBP/USD is in a minor uptrend from 1.4557, after reaching a significant bottom, probably a final of the prolonged slide since 2.0153 short-term top. Technical indicators are slowly reversing on daily basis and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6442 and 1.8717.

As expected, the consolidation above the previous low at 1.5270 has resulted in a renewal of the overall downtrend and the pair did almost reach our idealized target at 1.4503 with the minimum at 1.4557. The rise from 1.4557 looks a bit of a corrective one, but we favor the view, that a bottom has already been reached and currently the bias is positive, for 1.6301 and 1.7065.

In December we will expect the current uptrend from 1.4551 to be retained and to continue towards 1.6301 and even 1.6789. Crucial is 1.4711, as if the pair falls below that level, the whole structure above 1.4557 will be transformed into a corrective one and the general downtrend will be renewed towards 1.4103 and 1.3640.

Resistance
Support

1.5531
1.5889
1.6682
1.7065


1.5263
1.5130
1.4711
1.3640

Risk Disclaimer:
These analyses are for information purposes only. They do not post a buy or sell recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources.
The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Deltastock's Analyst Deptartment also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe may impact the price moves of the observed instruments.
Deltastock AD assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Deltastock AD shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result.
Any information is subject to change without prior notice.




All Rights Reserved © 1999 - 2008 DELTASTOCK AD - Sofia 1301, 6 Stefan Stambolov Blvd., phone +359 2 811 50 50/811 50 55; office@deltastock.com; Risk Disclosure